Explained: Rupee's 'threat' will continue in Asia, dollar's 'threat' will vanis

Last week was in the name of Rupee in the entire Asian currency market. Dollar could not stand anywhere in front of Rupee. If we look at the figures, then Rupee has seen a rise of about one percent against Dollar. 

The special thing is that other Asian currencies like China's Yuan and Japan's Yen could not stand in front of Dollar. 

Experts say that Reserve Bank of India has worked hard to manage Rupee and strengthen it against Dollar. The benefits of which are now visible to it.

Experts even say that next week too the dollar's dominance will be seen disappearing from the Asian markets. Once again the sound of the rupee will be heard across Asia. 

The sound of the rupee's strength will be heard from Delhi to Shanghai and Tokyo. Its echo can trouble people even in Washington. Let us also tell you what kind of movement of the rupee can be seen from next week i.e. Monday.

The uptrend will continue

The rupee may rise against the dollar on Monday. According to experts, the dollar is continuously declining and the effect of the measures taken to strengthen the rupee is being seen continuously. 

The rupee may rise further on Monday next week. According to experts, the effect of the reduction in crude oil prices is also being seen. In the coming days, the price of crude oil may fall further. 

Also, the effect of the fall in the dollar can also be seen in the form of a rise in the rupee. In such a situation, the sound of the rupee in Asia and its echo can be heard in Asia as well as America.

One percent rise

Last week, the rupee has seen a tremendous rise against the dollar. According to the data, the rupee has not seen an increase of more than one percent against the dollar. 

According to experts, this has happened after many months, when there has been an increase of more than one percent against the dollar in a single week. 

According to experts, the rupee can also see a strength of one to one and a half percent against the dollar in the next week. 

According to experts, the effect of the continuous fall in crude oil prices and the weakness in the dollar index can be clearly seen. In such a situation, the rupee can appear stronger against the dollar than the rest of the Asian currencies.

There was a boom on Friday

The rupee continued to rise in the Interbank Foreign Currency Exchange market on Friday and it closed 22 paise higher at 86.71 against the dollar on Friday. 

Foreign exchange traders said that the aggressive rise in the dollar stopped after the US government announced the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on April 1, which gave some relief to the trading partners. 

They said that however, high crude oil prices and continuous selling of shares by foreign institutional investors affected the sentiment of the rupee.

The rupee opened at 86.86 per dollar in the interbank foreign currency exchange market and rose to a high of 86.71 against the dollar during trading. 

It also touched a low of 86.90 per dollar and closed at 86.71 per dollar at the end of the session, up 21 paise from its previous close. The rupee was almost stable at 86.93 against the US dollar on Thursday with a marginal gain of two paise.

How much did the dollar index fall

If we talk about the dollar index, then in the last one week, there has been a decline of more than one percent. According to the data, in 5 trading days, the dollar index has come down by 1.15 percent to the level of 106.79. 

On Friday, the dollar index saw a decline of 0.52 i.e. 0.48 percent. In the last one month, the dollar index has seen an even sharper decline of 2.34 percent. 

Talking about the current year, the dollar index has sunk by 1.56 percent. However, if we talk about the last one year, the dollar index has strengthened by 2.39 percent. According to experts, the dollar index may come down further.

Why is the dollar index falling

The main reason for the fall in the dollar index is the possibility of no reduction in interest rates. According to the report, recently Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated no reduction in interest rates even after the reduction in inflation figures. 

He said in his statement that the Fed is in no mood to rush to cut the policy rate. Due to which the dollar index is witnessing a decline. This is the reason why the dollar index may continue to decline in the coming days.

What are the experts saying?

According to Anuj Gupta, a commodity currency expert at HDFC Securities, the rupee may strengthen in the coming week. He said that there is a continuous decline in the dollar index. 

There is a decrease in the prices of crude oil. All the factors supporting the rupee are still there and will work next week as well. He said that there is still an atmosphere of uncertainty in the international market. The rupee is strengthening due to the efforts of RBI.

On the other hand, Anuj Chaudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said that the rupee gained due to the weak US dollar index. 

He said that the US dollar declined because President Donald Trump postponed the implementation of retaliatory tariffs till April 1, which has calmed the panic in the market.

Chowdhary said that continued selling by FIIs (foreign institutional investors) may put further pressure on the rupee. However, any further intervention by the Reserve Bank of India can support the rupee at lower levels. 

Traders can take cues from US retail sales and industrial production data. He said that the dollar-rupee spot price is likely to remain in the range of 86.60 to 87.10.